The Radical Centrist™

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Slight revision… Trump did something correct

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Ever notice when newspapers print a sensationalist story on page 1 the headlines are huge… then any correction is a blurb in small fonts below the tide schedules on page 39?

We here at The Radical Centrist™ like to be more upfront.  Which brings us to being fair… something else we strive for… regarding Mr Trump and his dealings with Kim Jong-Un of North Korea when Mr Trump was president.  Last week I watched a Netflix documentary regarding Kim Jong-Un’s life.  It was pretty interesting.  One aspect focused on the summits between Kim and Trump and Kim’s desire to modernize his country.  Problem is, modernization is at a standstill due to ever-increasing US sanctions that have been in place for decades.

In a nutshell, Kim viewed Trump as an easy target.  A pushover.  Kim wanted the complete and total removal of all economic sanctions for pretty much nothing, ceasing nuclear research at only one facility.  Who’s going to fall for that, right?  Kim was confident Trump was that weak.  (To be honest, I would have thought so, too, hence the purpose of this article.)  The first time this was broached Trump balked.  Trump wanted complete abandonment of the North Korean nuclear program.  Kim wouldn’t go that far.

The next time the two met over this topic Kim was VERY confident he would prevail, he saw Trump as that weak.  Trump, to his credit, held firm.  Kim went home humiliated.

So here’s our minor mea culpa… acknowledging and giving Trump credit for doing something correct and for the correct reasons.  To someone he’s “in love” with, no less.  Enjoy this.  Trump doesn’t do the correct thing for the correct reasons very often.

 

Ukraine vs Russia, Pt 4

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More random musings regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  Situations and possible topic change by the hour, so it’s hard for a person like me to keep up.  I mean, I have a day job and all that, but I do my best and try to be informative and maybe even entertaining.  I strive to give accurate factual information, infused with my own perspectives and conclusions.  So let’s go…

Putin is Backed into a Corner

Of course Putin is claiming all is going to plan, but no one really believes that.  Putin expected it to go quick, within 2 to 3 days, max.  He expected Ukrainians to give up immediately.  I mean, who sends an invasion force in with only 2 to 3 days worth of food an fuel?  He expected to have a puppet government in place by now.  He did NOT expect almost the entire world, especially all of Europe (even Switzerland!), to rally against him.  So he’s doubling-down and increasing his military moves, and it’s still falling short.

Putin’s latest move is threatening Sweden and Finland with military retaliation if they join NATO.  Explain this to me. Putin threatens to retaliate if Finland and Sweden join NATO. So, he wants to attack if they join a defensive alliance, which would trigger all of NATO to respond. Is this rational thinking?  I do not think he is a madman, but I do think he knows he backed himself into a corner and is throwing out whatever MIGHT work.  It’s a move of desperation.

Really, with as strong as the Russian military is supposed to be, this should be over by now.  The “West” has responded with virtually everything they have, minus military action, and that’s a large hammer and Putin knows it.  One of Putin’s unintended consequences, in my opinion, is he has exposed how weak they really are.

Russian Troop Morale, well… Doesn’t Exist

Old Ukrainian women are walking up to Russian soldiers and chewing them out.  There have been multiple credible reports of Russian soldiers knocking on doors and politely begging for food.  Russian soldiers have been texting their mothers telling how they don’t even know why they’re the

Russian soldiers in Ukraine are “don’t know why they are on our land”, a dad-of-three in Lviv has said, while they are also lacking food and fuel.

Russians troops are disoriented, hungry, and don’t understand why they’re invading, says Ukrainian

People aren’t robots.  Russian soldiers have nothing to fight for, Ukrainian soldiers do.

Ukraine vs Russia, Pt 3

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Here’s Part Three of my thoughts on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, so let’s not beat around the bush and get right to it…

Putin’s Claims of NATO Aggression

A big part of Putin’s irrational rationalizations for invading Ukraine is for protection from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), a defense treaty organization of a collection of countries primarily in western Europe.  His demands… his “security guarantees”… include, but are not limited to, guarantees Ukraine would never join NATO, pulling back NATO weapons and troops away from Russia’s borders to their pre-1997 levels (when NATO expanded eastward), and basically accusing the west of being a bunch of meanies out to get poor little defenseless Russia.

The whole NATO angle is, of course, a total red herring.  NATO has never been offensively aggressive in its entire existence.  It’s all made up, and no one is buying it.  The ironic part is that Putin’s actions will probably cause, I believe, Sweden and Finland to join NATO, two strong countries that have traditionally opted for walking a fine line of neutrality (albeit being closer to the west and NATO).

And the kicker?  Should Ukraine survive (without a puppet government), Ukraine just may be fast-tracked into the European Union (EU) and/or NATO, as well.

Putin, the Whole World Really, Has Vastly Underestimated Ukraine… and Overestimated His Own Forces

It was supposed to be over by now.  Putin promised his soldiers would surrender easily, that the people would greet them with flowers and open arms.  Not only did Putin underestimate Ukrainian’s valiant defense of their country, he also underestimate almost the entire world’s response and their willingness to band together with sanctions and isolation of Russia.  Even uber neutral Switzerland is joining in the sanctions.  Meanwhile…

  • Putin’s own citizens are rising up and protesting,
  • there are reports of Russian soldiers asking for food and fuel from Ukrainians,
  • correspondence has been leaked of Russian soldiers writing their families saying they have no idea why they’re their or what they’re fighting for,
  • the Ukraine Army has been using Russia’s own defensive offensive tactics against the, successfully,
  • reports are coming in from everywhere of Ukrainian bravery,

Putin has backed himself into a corner, no doubt about it… but you’ll have to wait for Part 4.

Ukraine vs Russia, Pt 2

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Map of Ukraine.

Yesterday, in Ukraine vs Russia, Pt 1, we talked about a couple aspects of the Russian invasion.  I had originally five or six thoughts, and decided to break them down into smaller posts, so here’s a couple more.  Granted, the first one is soft…

Incidental(?), but Interesting Similarities

The past five-ish years there have been a lot of talk regarding Putin and Donald Trump, Russian interference into the 2016 election, and so on.  And recently there have been people talking about Trump’s recent praise for Putin regarding the invasion.  I am not going to go into those here, those are topics for another conversation, but on February 24, 2022, Putin said…

Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a dire threat to Western nations on Thursday morning, saying they would face “consequences greater than any you have faced in history” if they become involved with his invasion of Ukraine.

Putin threatens West with ‘consequences greater than any you have faced in history’ if it intervenes in his invasion of Ukraine

Does that sound kind of familiar?  Why yes, yes it does.  In 2017 then-president Trump said…

“North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States. They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen,” Trump told reporters at the Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster, New Jersey.

Trump says North Korea will be met with ‘fire and fury’ if it threatens U.S.

Does this similarity mean anything?  Meh, I don’t know.  But it stuck out to me.  At the very least it demonstrates a similar mindset between the two.

Volodymyr Zelensky is The Man

Zelensky, Ukraine’s president has taken leadership to a new level.  Not only does he talk the talk, he walks the walk.  He’s out there, literally leading and inspiring his people.  He is not baking down.  He is not caving in.  Read this opinion piece by someone who is there and knows.  They put it much better than I can…

When the United States offered to evacuate him amid concerns for his safety, he replied: “The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride.”

Opinion: I did not vote for Ukraine’s president. His courage has changed my mind and inspired millions.

Wow.  If that is not inspiring I don’t know what is, and from what I am seeing lately he is indicative of the Ukrainian people.  Simply put, Ukrainians are some bad-asses.

Ukraine vs Russia, Pt 1

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A few days ago Russia… let’s be honest, Vladimir Putin… launched a full invasion of Ukraine.  Not just small pieces, but the entire country.  Now, I will not front, I support Ukraine in this 100%, though I do not believe it will go well for them.

Please note that my thoughts have been very fluid on this situation for several weeks.  What I say and think may change based on unfolding events, and already have changed since the actual invasion a few days ago.  My points and topics here may be kind of scattered and incomplete, but hopefully they will come together over time.  So, some random thoughts and points…

What does Putin want?

I believe the primary purpose behind Putin’s actions are his ego, his concern with his legacy.  He doesn’t want to be remembered as just another bureaucrat, he wants to be remembered in history as the one who “reassembled” the old Soviet Union, or the old Russia (as much as possible).  Ukraine is a big part of that.   Ukraine is also about the last piece he can bring back.  Belarus is a Putin Puppet state, he failed in Georgia, the countries in the Kazakhstan area might be too strong, and the Baltic states… which I believe he really wants along with Ukraine, Russia has had a “Europe inferiority complex” for centuries… are long gone, members of NATO.  But if he can get Ukraine, which has been drifting West, he would see that as a feather in his cap and help solidify his historical legacy… he believes.

Strategy:  Following Hitler’s Playbook

There are many similarities here.  Back in the 1920s and 1930s there were various security alliances.  Very fragmented and chaotic than a single NATO today, but the same concept.  In the 1930s Adolf Hitler wanted to expand Germany, in much the same way and for the same reasons Putin wants to expand Russia.  What did Hitler/Germany do?

  1. Re-occupied the Rhineland in 1936, in violation of the Versailles Treaty.  There were measures in place to oppose this, and nobody did anything.
  2. The complete occupation and annexation of Austria in 1938.  No one did anything.
  3. Emboldened by the lack of consequences Hitler then set his sights on the Sudetenland of Czechoslovakia (CZ).  CZ was militarily strong, and had defense pacts with France and the Soviet Union.  With threats of war the leaders of Europe met and sacrificed CZ (weren’t even allowed at the table!) and signed the Munich Agreement.  CZ was now a shell of itself, and it was only a matter of time.  CZ is a good example for modern Ukraine.
  4. The Memel Territory was returned to Germany from Lithuania under threat of an ultimatum.
  5. Then the remainder of CZ was invaded and taken by Germany.  CZ’s allies had already abandoned them, and made it public, might as well.
  6. Then the invasion of Poland in 1939.  Hitler, I believe, presumed he would have free reign here, also, and why not?, up to this point everyone who could stop him abandoned their alleged convictions and agreements to do so.

Ok, so what has Putin been doing?

  1. Second Chechen War, 1999-2009, to bring Chechnya back after losing them earlier in the decade (pre-Putin).
  2. Russo-Georgia War, 2008, where Russia invaded Georgia.  Georgia had been taking a pro-West turn and this was unacceptable to Russia.  Russia started making wild accusations as a prelude (read: excuse) to invade, and they did.  Unfortunately for Russia, they lost.  Fast forward to today and Russia does occupy part of the country, but there is only a cease-fire in place, and Georgia is seeking NATO membership.
  3. Insurgency in the North Caucasus, 2009-2017, basically the aftermath of the Second Chechen War noted above.
  4. Invasion and annexation of Crimea from Ukraine, 2014, really part of the current conflict.
  5. War in Donbas in Ukraine, 2015-present, also part of the current conflict.
  6. Proclaimed/recognized the Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic, from two “breakaway” regions in Donbas, in 2022.  Part of the current conflict.
  7. Invasion of all of Ukraine, 2022, status yet to be determined.

Chip chip chip chip away.  Bit by bite by bite.  Take what you want a piece at a time.  Test the resolve of the more reasonable opposition to get what you want.  Take action in bites just small enough to get people worked up, but not big enough to prompt them to actually do anything.  Will it work?  Is it working?  For Putin, I mean.  Will Ukraine be to Putin what Poland was to Hitler, the beginning of his downfall?

Conclusion

That’s it for now.  I will take this up in another episode, soon.  I will say I have so many conflicting thoughts I don’t really know where to go with them.  Basically, this is getting longer than I it would, and it is taking long than I thought it would… and I got stuff to do.  So, until next time… here ya go!